On Saturday, July 10th, the UFC will air UFC 100 live from Las Vegas, Nevada. This card has been hyped enough, so let's just get to it.
Brock Lesnar (c) (3-1) vs. Frank Mir (12-3)
There are many MMA fans (and fighters) that dislike Lesnar strictly because of his stint in professional wrestling. Maybe if he was coming in with professional wrestling being his only background, that opinion might hold some weight. But they purposely downplay his amateur career (and at the same time claim that wrestling is the best foundation for any future MMA fighter to have, and it is). And what an amateur career it was: undefeated in high school, NJCAA Champion in 1998, NCAA Division I runner-up in 1999, NCAA Division I Champion in 2000, with an overall amateur record of 106-5. Those stats are should definitely be kept in mind when looking at his MMA record of just four fights. There are a few other things to consider about his pro-wrestling career: WWE wrestlers are on the road and performing 5-7 days a week, around 350 days a year, so his conditioning has been great for a long time. The amount of money Lesnar made enables him to focus full-time on his MMA training. Finally, his WWE career lasted for about four years, his Japan wrestling career consisted of a few matches. He is now approaching two years as MMA fighter, training full-time. He almost (and should NOT have been stopped) beat Mir the first time, he completely dominated Heath Herring and he beat the legend Couture. That's one steep learning curve.
Mir himself has issues in garnering respect. In fact, his surprising decimation of Nogueira raised his stock in the MMA world more than any other fight he has had before (including his breakage of Tim Sylvia's forearm). His first reign as UFC heavyweight champion came to a (literal) crash when he wrecked his motorcycle in 2004 and sustained some significant injuries. His return to the UFC in 2006 resulted in a TKO loss, a lackluster decision, and another TKO loss. He finally regained some momentum with a submission victory over Antoni Hardonk at UFC 74. When he faced Lesnar the first time, most fans were unaware of his successful pre-accident career. His performance against Lesnar that night was anything to write home about, and it is questionable if he would survived Lesnar's onslaught if the referee had not stopped it for illegal blows to the back of the head. But his match with Nogueira definitely put him back on the map. Coupled with a legit black belt in BJJ and Mir's style of taking a hold to its nasty end, rather than just seeking a tapout, and you have one dangerous heavyweight.
Breakdown: Though he showed considerable growth in his striking game against Noguiera, standing toe-toe with Lesnar is akin to standing toe-to-toe with a freight train. Mir's game plan will be much the same as it was in their first fight: wait for Lesnar to make a mistake and then capitalize on it with his superior submission skills. Lesnar will initially keep it standing, but will eventually utilize his wrestling skills and incredible strength to take Mir down. If he can stay on top, he will smother Mir to neutralize his BJJ and pick his shots from there. As long as he doesn't leave himself open, this method will ultimately be successful.
Prediction: Lesnar, TKO by ground-and-pound, 2nd round
Georges St-Pierre (18-2) (c) vs. Thiago Alves (22-4)
GSP is the consummate MMA fighter. If there is a current challenger to Silva's claim to best pound-for-fighter, GSP is near or on top of the list. He has victories over such notables as Matt Hughes (twice), BJ Penn (twice), Matt Serra, Josh Koscheck, Sean Sherk, Karo Parisyan, Frank Trigg and Jason Miller. His only two losses occurred at the hands of Hughes (early in GSP's career) and the surprise victory of Serra; losses that GSP avenged in more than convincing fashion. Alves is a rising star, with striking similarities to GSP was in both career and style. He avenged his first loss against Derrick Noble for his UFC debut, but lost his next match against John Fitch. He then went on an impressive win streak, including victories over Chris Lytle, Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck.
Breakdown: As good as Alves is, his stylistic similarities with GSP will be his downfall. He will play right into GSP's hands, whom is at or nearing his prime as an MMA fighter. This will be a busy, exciting fight, with GSP emerging as the victor.
Projected result: GSP, Unanimous decision
Dan Henderson (24-7) vs. Michael Bisping (18-1)
Henderson is being referred to as an MMA legend by the UFC, and rightfully so. He made his UFC debut way back at UFC 17, winning the tournament with a victory over Carlos Newton. He then competed in the RINGS King of Kings tourney in Japan, winning the whole thing and beating Gilbert Yvel, Nogueira, Renato Sobral and Wanderlei Silva in the process. He then became of the stars of PRIDE FC, holding victories over Marilo Rua, Renzo Gracie, Murilo Bustamante, Ryo Chonan and Vitor Belfort. His biggest claim to fame is winning the PRIDE light-heavyweight title against Wanderlei while still holding the middle-weight title. His return to the UFC has not been as stellar as he hoped, with losses to Quinton Jackson and Anderson Silva in first two bouts. He rebounded with wins over Rousimar Palhares and Rich Franklin. Bisping rose up through the TUF series, winning season 3. He won his first UFC PPV match against Elvis Sinosic, followed by a controversial decision over TUF 3 darling Matt Hamill. After losing a decision to Rashad Evans, Bisping moved down to middleweight, winning his next three matches. He proved to be a very good coach on TUF: USA vs UK; however Henderson will be the toughest opponent of his career so far.
Breakdown: Bisping proved against Hamill that he has trouble with strong wrestlers, and though he has surely worked on it, Hamill is no Hendo. Dan Henderson is a veteran with more to give, and that will be the difference maker.
Projected result: Henderson, Decision
Rest of the TV Card:
John Fitch vs Paulo Thiago, TKO
Alan Belcher v. Yoshihiro Akiyama, Decision
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